Military Appreciation Monday

Supports

Neighbors Foundation

- Come join us at The Old Brogue in Great Falls on February 27^th for this month’s MAM event in support of the Neighbors Foundation.  All you have to do is show up and eat a great meal.  Myself and my co-sponsors will each donate a 10 percent match of whatever you spend on dinner.  In November, 220% of the receipts were donated to the  group Stop Soldier Suicide.

For the past 2+ years, we have been hearing that housing starts are down. In the shallow way in which our media reports things, this has been presented as something less than desirable. Although not an economist, for the same 2+ years, I have been saying that this is actually a very good thing for the long term health of both our housing market and the U.S. economy in general. Builders and investors got carried away with home construction during 2004 and 2005. They ended up putting way to much inventory into the market place than was needed. We are just now entering into a period where there is beginning to be housing shortages (in certain markets). This in turn has caused rents to increase. This is very much the case in parts of Fairfax and Arlington Counties.

The June 20th issue of the Economist contains an article entitled: “Will housing save America’s economy?” that is discussing the fact that there is a large pent up demand for new housing. To read the full Article, click on the link: Economist Article. Hope you find this of interest.

Five Reasons You Should Sell Your House TODAY!

Selling your house in today’s market can be extremely difficult.  It is for that reason that every seller should take advantage of each and every opportunity that appears.  Each fall, such an opportunity presents itself.  This fall, that opportunity may be just too good to pass up.

Below are five reasons you should consider pricing your house to sell in the next 90 days.  Meet with your real estate agent and mortgage professional today and see whether it is the right move for you and your family.

1. Entering this time of year, the buyers are more serious.

We all realize that buyers are not quick to pull the trigger on the purchase of a home today.  There is no sense of urgency with the supply of eligible properties at all time highs.  However, at this time of year, the ‘lookers’ are at the stores doing their holiday shopping.  The home buyers left in the market are serious and are more apt to make a purchasing decision.  Less showings – but to more motivated purchasers.

2. If you are moving up, you can save thousands.

The Chicago Tribune stated in an article last week that sellers who want to ‘trade up’ should act now:

It could be a bigger house, different neighborhood or a better school district, but it comes with a higher price tag. Do the math; this might be the right time.

A home that was once worth $300,000 may now be worth $240,000 in a market where prices have fallen 20 percent.  Wow, you think, the seller is taking a bath.  But that seller may also be a prospective buyer who wants a house that once was valued at $400,000. With an equivalent market drop and a realistic listing price, that house may now sell for $320,000.  So, in effect, the person is losing $60,000 on the sale of one home but coming out ahead $20,000 on the purchase of another.

Keep in mind the spread may be even greater.  There’s a smaller pool of potential buyers for more expensive homes, so sellers may be more willing to cut their price to get a deal done.

3. Interest rates just fell again – to 4.19%.

Professor Karl E. Case, the founder of the Case Shiller Pricing Index in an article in the New York Times last month actually did the math for us:

Four years ago, the monthly payment on a $300,000 house with 20 percent down and a mortgage rate of about 6.6 percent was $1,533. Today that $300,000 house would sell for $213,000 and a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with 20 percent down would carry a rate of about 4.2 percent and a monthly payment of $833 … housing has perhaps never been a better bargain.

4. You beat the rush of inventory that is coming next year.

Every year there is an increase of inventory which comes to market from January through April as homeowners put their houses up for sale in preparation for the spring market. As an example, here is the number of listings available for sale in each of those months in 2010.

-  January – 3,277,000

-  February – 3,531,000

-  March – 3,626,000

-  April – 4,029,000

You won’t have to worry about this increasing competition if you sell now.

5. You have less ‘discounted’ inventory with which to compete.

This year, sellers of non-distressed properties have been given an early holiday present. With banks declaring a suspension on the sale of many distressed properties (foreclosures), there has been a large supply of discounted properties removed from competition.  No one knows how long this self imposed moratorium will last.  However, while it does, every homeowner has a better chance of selling their property.

Bottom Line

If you are looking to sell in the near future, there may not be a more opportune time than this fall. Serious buyers, great move-up deals and less competition from foreclosures creates the perfect selling situation. Don’t miss it!

As I have been saying (and writing about) during the past two years, our local real estate market will likely be the first to return to normalcy.  This is based on the fact that our local economy continues to be a fairly strong once.  A recent Washington Post Article entitled, “In Throes of Recession, D.C. Stands Apart”.  I have also been warning that we may well see a spike up in prices for both first time home buyers and move up buyers.  This due to what I believe will be a severe lack of new homes coming into the local inventory.  Many first time buyers have been looking at foreclosures as a means of getting into the market.  This is beginning to wane as those opportunities become less and less.  While the number of foreclosures currently at 179 for Fairfax County may seem high, a total of  225 sold in October alone in 2009 compared to only 113 for September 2010.  If you or someone you know is contemplating a purchase in the near term, I would suggest they consider doing so during the next three to four months.  I fully believe that once our spring market kicks in, we may well see a spike in prices as the inventory gets eaten up quickly.  This has already begun to happen with homes located inside the beltway in Virginia with homes receiving multiple offers and in some cases offers that include escalation addenda.   We also have record level interest rates for 30 fixed mortgages.

I thought it might be fun to throw in some comments from previous clients.  Please feel free to send my your thoughts.

I recently wrote a quick note to some folks who bought a Deck House in Reston.  I had said I wanted to stop by and see what they had done to their new home.  I knew from the moment we walked in the door that it was the perfect home for them.  Here is what Gene wrote back to me.

Bob. Come by anytime. We have done a lot. It has been fun. Thanks for helping us get it. I have never lived in a house I love more. You are the man Bob. See you soon.

Needless to say, I can’t wait to get by and see the home again.
A young couple (who are soon to have their first baby) bought their first home in Reston earlier this year.  We had looked at several homes together, but this particular townhome was an excellent value and in great shape.  Here is what Megan recently sent me.

Hi Bob, we’re really enjoying the house.  Of course you can stop by.
We’re out of the house until the evening most weekdays, so would over
the weekend work for you?

We’re sorry we haven’t been in touch, and we really appreciate all
you’ve done to help us get it.

I look forward to getting by and see it soon.  It will be even more exciting next fall after the baby is born.  I know they have to be extremely excited.

The Fairfax County Economic Development Authority just announced that Fortune Magazine has released its annual list of the 500 companies in the country with the largest revenue.  A total of  eight (up from seven in 2009) Fairfax County-based companies grace the list. Tysons Corner-based mortgage behemoth Freddie Mac comes in at 54, and defense-industry giant Merrifield-based General Dynamics is 69. Other Fairfax County firms on the list are Merrifield-based CSC (138), Tysons Corner-based Capital One Financial (144), Tysons Corner-based Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) (215), Reston-based NII Holdings (468), Reston-based SLM (Sallie Mae) (354), and Tysons Corner-based Gannett (370). Fortunately, you can get the rest of the story from the Washington Business Journal’s Jeff Clabaugh.

Join us for dinner at

The Old Brogue in Great Falls

Monday, March 29th

Seatings at 5:30 PM and 7:30 PM

Reservations Highly Recommended

(703) 759-3309

Approximately 90% of your dinner bill

will be matched and donated to this month’s charity.

Lift Me Up! Therapeutic Riding

Door Prize Drawings will be held

Also Ask About Our Buy a Vet Dinner Donations

Hosted by

The Bob Nelson Team

Previous Co-sponsors Include:

Bob Nelson

Knight Point Systems

Terry Nelson – Mercury LLC.

Kevin Shiner – Shiner Roofing and Siding

James Gaudiosi – Wells Fargo Home Mortgage

Danny Ott – Wells Fargo Home Mortgage

Chris Melnick – LSA Title Services

Gary Kaihara, DDS

The Old Brogue

Previous Door Prize Donors include:

Golds Gym

Dominion Title

Adeler Jewelers

Casa Noble Tequila

Elite Fitness Concepts

Campbell Mechanical

PF Chang’s Restaurant

Great Falls Design Build

Lodgecliffe Bed and Breakfast

According to data from the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales were up 3.7 percent in October, compared to September, and up 32 percent when compared to October 2008.  This was the biggest annual increase in history.  Keep in mind that October 2008 was a historic low so we should not be surprised by the huge increase.

Pending home sales — which equates to the number of contracts signed but have yet to close — rose in all sections of the country except the West.  They were up 20 percent in the Northeast, 11.6 percent in the Midwest and 5.4 percent in the South, but down 11.2 percent in the West.

Part of the surge is probably attributable to buyers rushing to take advantage of the government-subsidized first-time home buyer’s credit, which was set to expire at the end of November but now has been extended through April.  Also, the bulk of sales still are coming from cheaper houses, with little movement in houses costing more than $250,000.

As you may know, one of my recent events went towards supporting the group Our Military Kids.  My son just sent me a link to the video below. (Return from Iraq).   I will be sending out an e-mail in the next few weeks with OMK’s Christmas gift wish list.  Please think about what this young girl and all the other kids have been dealing with while their moms and dads are serving our country.

The Return from Iraq

Existing-home sales bounced back strongly in September with first-time buyers driving much of the activity, marking five gains in the past six months, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

Existing-home sales—including single-family, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops—jumped 9.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million units in September from a level of 5.10 million in August, and are 9.2 percent higher than the 5.10 million-unit pace in September 2008. Sales activity is at the highest level in more than two years, since it hit 5.73 million in July 2007.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said favorable conditions matched with a tax credit are boosting home sales. “Much of the momentum is from people responding to the first-time buyer tax credit, which is freeing many sellers to make a trade and buy another home,” he said. “We are hopeful the tax credit will be extended and possibly expanded to more buyers, at least through the middle of next year, because the rising sales momentum needs to continue for a few additional quarters until we reach a point of a self-sustaining recovery.”

Even with the improvement, Yun said the market is underperforming. “Despite spectacular gains in the stock market, principally from the financial sector recovery, most of the 75 million home-owning families have more wealth tied to their homes. Home values could soon turn consistently positive and help the broad base of middle-class families, but we are not there yet,” he said.

Conditions for First-Time Buyers
Early information from a large annual consumer study to be released on Nov. 13, the 2009 National Association of REALTORS® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers,shows that first-time home buyers accounted for more than 45 percent of home sales during the past year. A separate practitioner survey shows that distressed homes accounted for 29 percent of transactions in September.

NAR President Charles McMillan said affordability conditions remain historically high. “Potential first-time buyers can take heart in that affordability conditions this year are the highest on record dating back to 1970, but with the first-time buyer tax credit scheduled to expire at the end of next month, people could hold back from entering the market,” he said. “Our read is that housing overshot on the downside because homes are selling for less than replacement construction costs in much of the country, and the home price-to-income ratio has fallen below the historical average.”

Inventory Falls
Total housing inventory at the end of September fell 7.5 percent to 3.63 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 7.8-month supply at the current sales pace, down from an 9.3-month supply in August. Unsold inventory totals are 15.0 percent below a year ago.

“The current housing supply is the lowest we’ve seen in two and a half years,” Yun said. “If we could continue to absorb inventory at this pace, home prices would return to normal, modest appreciation patterns next year.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 5.06 percent in September from 5.19 percent in August; the rate was 6.04 percent in September 2008.

Home Sales Breakdown
The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $174,900 in September, which is 8.5 percent lower than September 2008. Distressed properties continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes in the same area.

Single-family home sales rose 9.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million in September from a pace of 4.47 million in August, and are 7.7 percent above the 4.54 million-unit level in September 2008. The median existing single-family home price was $174,900 in September, which is 8.1 percent below a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales jumped 9.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 680,000 units in September from 620,000 in August, and are 9.7 percent above the 561,000-unit pace a year ago. The median existing condo price was $175,100 in September, down 11.7 percent from September 2008.

Here’s the region-by-region picture:

• Northeast: Existing-home sales increased 4.4 percent to an annual level of 950,000 in September, and are 11.8 percent higher than September 2008. The median price was $234,700, down 7.0 percent from a year ago.
• Midwest: Existing-home sales jumped 9.6 percent in September to a pace of 1.25 million and are 7.8 percent above a year ago. The median price was $147,600, which is 1.0 percent below September 2008.
• South: Existing-home sales rose 9.0 percent to an annual level of 2.06 million in September and are 10.8 percent higher than September 2008. The median price was $153,500, down 7.6 percent from a year ago.
• West: Existing-home sales surged 13.0 percent to an annual rate of 1.30 million in September and are 5.7 percent above a year ago. The median price in the West was $219,000, which is 15.0 percent below September 2008.