According to data from the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales were up 3.7 percent in October, compared to September, and up 32 percent when compared to October 2008.  This was the biggest annual increase in history.  Keep in mind that October 2008 was a historic low so we should not be surprised by the huge increase.

Pending home sales — which equates to the number of contracts signed but have yet to close — rose in all sections of the country except the West.  They were up 20 percent in the Northeast, 11.6 percent in the Midwest and 5.4 percent in the South, but down 11.2 percent in the West.

Part of the surge is probably attributable to buyers rushing to take advantage of the government-subsidized first-time home buyer’s credit, which was set to expire at the end of November but now has been extended through April.  Also, the bulk of sales still are coming from cheaper houses, with little movement in houses costing more than $250,000.

The following is the same advice I gave my son four years ago when he purchased his first home and the same my dad gave me over 30 years ago when I purchased my first home. I still thank my dad for having done this and Bob still thanks me as well.  I am fairly certain you would do the same in four and in 30 years. 

You really want to stretch yourself a bit when you purchase your first, second, or third home.  It requires some minor sacrifices from a personal lifestyle perspective, but will pay huge dividends in the long run.  On average, home prices increase by about 10 percent per year.  Since the end of WWII, we have repeatedly seen peaks and valleys in the housing market.  We have also seen that, on average, home prices have doubled every ten years.  The recent downturn really was not much worse than some of the previoues drops.  In fact, there have been worse, particularly following the Savings and Loan crisis of the late 1980’s.  More importantly, right now we are in the midst of the most affordable home market in almost 30 years.  I would venture say that we are likely to see gains in home values (in our region) more to the tune of about 15 percent per year for the next few years.  Even using the more conservative 10 percent average, if you purchase a $250,000 home, you will see a gain of more than $25,000 per year.  A home purchased for $450,000 will see a gain of $45,000 per year, etc.

 Using current mortgage interest rates of about 5 percent, your mortgage payments plus taxes and insurance (referred to at PITI) will cost about $55 per month per $10,000. (This factors in the savings that you will have on your state and federal taxes based on a 25 percent tax bracket.)  Your annual in costs will be roughly $625 per year for every $10,000 increase in price.  If historical trends continue to play out, your increased costs of $625 per $10,000 will result in an increase in equity of $1,000.  A $50,000 increase in mortgage would cost about $3125 per year with a $5000 potential increase in equity. At the same time, you will be living in a considerably more comfortable home than your current home.

I don’t know nor need to know your income level, but an average couple in this region earns a minimum of somewhere around $100,000+ per year. Assuming an annual cost of living increase of about two percent, this income increase by about $2,000 per year.  It might be worth thinking about cutting back on some of your entertainment expenses for a year or two to broaden the selection of homes available and imrpove your ability to see increased gains in the long run.

 Of course, this is simply a suggestion. I am certainly happy to show you homes in the whatever price range you’d like, but am certain you will thank me profusely in three to five years if you decide to look at the next higher tier of homes.

  A recent Wall Street Journal article, entitled “A Toe in the Water” written by Dave Kansas gives a very good perspective on what it happening in the marketplace.  Dave is located in London and would presumably suggest diving into the local Northern Virginia market based on our current trends.

  Last week I sent a total of 22 listings in Arlington for one of my clients to review.  When we got together yesterday to look at these homes, 10 were already off the market. They are looking in the $650,000 to $750,000 price range.  This is probably above the typical first time homebuyer range and is not likely affected by the $8,000 tax credit.  I also went out with another couple on Saturday looking in the $200,000 range.  We had a list of about ten homes to see which I had check for availability Friday night.  From this list, only two were available by Saturday afternoon and they were complete wrecks. 

  To learn more about your home as an investment, I suggest reading “The Automatic Millionaire Homeowner” by David Bach.

  Let me know when you are ready to take advantage of this incredible market.

 As you have likely been reading, the First-time Homebuyer Credit program will expire on November 30′th.  What many people have not understood, this means you must settle on your new home by that date.  Having just purchased a new car, I encountered the flurry of activity that occurred on the last few days of the Cash for Clunkers program.  For those who purchased a new car, it was feasible (although not advisable) to wait to the last minute.    WARNING:  This is not the way the homebuying process works.  We are quickly approaching what is the last minute for you to make your purchase.  Unlike picking out a new car, finding the right home can take a week, two weeks or in some cases several months.  Even once you have found the perfect place to call home, you will then need to start the actual buying process.  This has quickly become challenging in our local market since the more affordable homes are disappearing from the inventory.  A simple understanding of the law of supply and demand will tell you that this will create upward pressure on prices and competition for the same properties.  Remember that what you find appealing will also appeal to a great many others.  I just sold my used car to “Joe C.” who has been trying to buy a home in Woodbridge.  He said that he and his fiance have made offers on three homes, only to be out bid either by higher offers or all cash offers.  There are several things that Joe and his Realtor can do to insure that this doesn’t happen which we can easily cover in person. 

Once a contract is ratified, the process will then take a minimum of three weeks to four weeks to get to the settlement table.  And this only if everything lines up perfectly.  With that said, you will need between six and eight weeks to find the right home and settle on it.  We have only 11 weeks until the program expires.  The reality is that three weeks to spare in the homebuying process is equivalent to three hours in the auto purchase world.

If you are reading this post, you probably already decided to purchase a home, but I would suggest reading the about the Proven Path to Home Ownership since it provides a very succint discussion o fthe home buying process.  We can always discuss this in more detail once we get together. 

At the risk of sounding like a high pressure sales person, you really can’t wait much longer to take advantage of the First Time Homebuyer Credit.  Depending on you income, this credit can mean an actual dollar savings of anywhere from $10,000 – 16,000 in pre-income tax money. 

Bob Nelson

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Purchasing real estate is a great investment whether you are purchasing your first home, second home or are a seasoned investor. You are invited to visit this site often to view homes for sale, read home buying and selling advice, get information about local schools, and the local communities. (About Me)